The United States has announced new tariff measures targeting imports from Vietnam. While Donald Trump’s rhetoric surrounding the announcement was dramatic – “Vietnam: great negotiators, great people, they like me. I like them. The problem is they charge us 90%. We’re going to charge them 46% tariff.” – the implications deserve a clear, measured analysis.
Below is our summary of what’s happening, why it matters, and how we see it playing out.
Based on tariffs of 46% we estimate the impact to Vietnam’s GDP at between 1.4-2.0%
Today was an opening salvo, but the key date is 9 April when the tariffs go into effect. We expect Vietnam to be proactive with both economic transactions and non-trade negotiations to target a tariff level on par with regional peers.
Our equity market outlook is for volatility in the short term, with the government’s decisive reform efforts favouring domestic consumption prevailing over the medium-to-long term.
